The Aftermath of Irene

Even as a Category 1, Hurricane Irene still did some significant damage.  Above is a picture of two trees that fell down outside Irene's sustained hurricane force wind radius, in sustained winds of only tropical storm force winds, with gusts maybe reaching hurricane force.  This just puts into perspective how strong tropical systems are, even if they are only tropical storms or a category 1.  Luckily, the trees didn't land on any power lines or people.  The other problem Irene caused was major flooding.  The Raritan River crested at near-record levels, around 40 feet.  Below is a picture of Route 18 near New Brunswick that was completely under water.  Multiple locations in NJ also received excessive amounts of water, causing serious flooding to towns and neighborhoods that resulted in additional evacuations.

Good news is that the Raritan has receded and Route 18 has now reopened in both directions.  However, roughly 280,000 homes and businesses around NJ are still in the black with no power. 

For continued coverage on the 2011 Hurricane Season, visit the WeatherCoats Hurricane Center.

Tropics Update - Will We Be Hit by a Hurricane?

Looking at the Atlantic GFS Forecast Model, it could be a possibility. The model is forecasting that a tropical wave coming off the shore of Africa will develop into a tropical system near the Antilles by sometime this weekend.  By next Saturday, this is what the computer model is suggesting: a tropical system, maybe hurricane strength, off the coast of Florida.  As you can see, the Low pictured above has tight isobars (the lines of pressure) and counterclockwise winds, all signs of a tropical system.

The current track (red dots) for it takes it into the coast of Georgia and South Carolina, over land where it will dissipate, and into Pennsylvania.  Now of course, a computer model forecast 2 weeks away is quite inaccurate with the track of systems, but the GFS does do a fair job at detecting that a system will develop somewhere in a general area and is considered a decent hurricane forecast model.  So should we expect a hurricane?  I'm going to take a wild guess (which I can do because I'm only a meteorology student) and say that there stands a decent chance for a hurricane, but the track is more than likely to change or even possibly take a whole other direction.  However, I wouldn't give up all hope!  I'll believe in the GFS if you do!!!

UPDATE - A day later the forecast track of the tropical system from the GFS has already changed.  It now takes it more eastward, just off the coast of New Jersey by Sunday the 28th:

Now as I said before, the track this far out is very uncertain.  However, I'm doing this just to let people know that there just to be aware of the possible threat and to just see how good the GFS really is haha.  And of course, the track of this storm is bound to change (could change to have a direct hit or a total miss). 

Keep track of the model updates here.

NJ Weather - ONE Nice Day and then More Rain!

Well that was a wet past couple of days, with records for rainfall in a single day being shattered in some areas!  Good news is that we'll have at least one nice day before the wet weather returns for Thursday and Friday.  The NAM Forecast Model is suggesting 0.5 to .75 inches of rain will fall with this system, with higher amounts in areas impacted by thunderstorms.  The GFS Forecast Model however is racking up with a higher total of possibly 1.5 inches in parts of New Jersey (again, higher in areas with thunderstorms).  Because the NAM is a higher resolution model, I'd have to go with its prediction as of now, but I guess we'll have to wait and see on that. 

As for the weekend, it looks pretty good with sunny conditions with only a slight chance of rain Sunday night.  Now here is where it gets a little... iffy.  The NWS forecast calls for mostly sunny conditions for Monday and Tuesday, however the GFS Forecast Model, generally good at forecasting 7 days out, suggests a system developing and dumping some rain from Monday into Tuesday.  I would personally keep an eye out for that as most of the time the GFS is correct in showing that a storm is coming.

Looking Ahead:  High Pressure builds for the remainder of next week, but will we be impacted by... a hurricane?

WeatherCoats | NJ Weather - Heavy Rain Ahead!

Looks like it's going to be a really wet next couple of days, with showers and storms from Saturday Night into possibly Tuesday!  Unfortunately my last forecast only called for storms on Saturday and Sunday, not into Monday and Tuesday.  Total rainfall amounts from this system could be a over and inch, with more in areas impacted by thunderstorms.  A good chunk of the rain is expected to fall during Sunday and Sunday night.  The system is expected to move out of the area slowly from Monday into Tuesday.  Then some sunny and nice conditions take control Wednesday into Thursday, but some showers and storms will roll in Thursday night.  More rain will then affect us on Friday.

Looking Ahead:  Southerly winds are still expected to make things warmer and more humid during the weekend as another system moves through the area, dumping some more rain for the weekend.  For next week, two systems will move through making it a wet week.  Good news is that some High Pressure looks to be building up for the weekend, giving us some clear conditions!

WeatherCoats | NJ Weather - Some Storms for the Weekend

Okay so unfortunately I was basically wrong with my last "Looking Ahead" forecast, but I'm just going to try and blame it on the GFS Forecast Models... Anyway, lets get this weeks forecast right!  After the showers and storms tonight, the next couple of days will be pretty nice, with plenty of sunshine, temperatures in the mid-80s, and low humidity!  Then some showers and storms will move in Saturday night and into Sunday.  Then for the start of next week, some sunny and cool conditions!

Looking Ahead:  The rest of next week looks to remain dry and cool as a High Pressure System moves in over the area.  Unfortunately for the weekend, some hotter and more humid air looks to be moving in.

WeatherCoats | Hurricane Eugene (Pacific) Reaches Category 4

Hurricane Eugene 8/3/11

Hurricane Eugene in the Pacific strengthens to a Category 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, with maximum sustained winds at 140mph.  The eye of Eugene is very well defined and the shape of the cyclone itself is very uniform, indicating the strength of the storm.  The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Eugene to move further into the Pacific where it will eventually dissipate into a Tropical Depression.  To keep an eye on Eugene, go to the WeatherCoats Hurricane Center or the National Hurricane Center website.

WeatherCoats | NJ Weather - Cooler Temps for the Week!

As I said in my last forecast, the middle of the week is seeing some cooler weather with rain!  I also said that there could be some rain on Sunday and Monday and there was!  However I did fail to predict temperatures for this week correctly, as I said they would be going back up at the end of the week.  But anyway, back to this forecast...

After a system moves through on Wednesday giving us a good chance for heavy rain and thunderstorms, some cooler weather will stay with us throughout the week.  Of course "cooler" is meant by no temperatures well into the 90s and not lower humidity.  For the weekend, higher humidity may help develop some thunderstorms throughout Saturday and Sunday.  Then some clouds will move in on Tuesday which is a result from another system moving in.

Looking Ahead:  Wet weather returns for the middle of next week before some High Pressure moves in for the weekend.  Then some more wet weather throughout the week after with temperatures looking to go up during the beginning of the week and then back down.

WeatherCoats | Tropical Storm Emily Develops

TS Emily

Tropical Storm Emily developed just north of South America earlier on Monday, August 1st.  Current sustained wind speeds are at 40mph and is moving West at 17mph.  Emily is expected to make a turn towards Florida and the East Coast and is forecasted to strengthen into a Hurricane.  Current forecast models suggest Emily may run into Florida or ride along the East Coast and maybe affect us?  We'll have to wait on that of course...

WeatherCoats | NJ Weather - The Hot Weather Returns...

Unfortunately the last forecast was a bit off by not forecasting thunderstorms for Sunday and Monday.  However, my personal observation turned out somewhat correct in saying there could be some rain Tuesday, as there is a chance of a thunderstorm Tuesday Night.  And like I said, some hot weather will be affecting us with a chance of thunderstorms Thursday Night into Friday.  The hot weather will stay with us through the beginning of next week and there may even be some rain then too.  The GFS Forecast Model is suggesting some rain Sunday night into Monday as a system may move through the area.

Looking Ahead:  We MIGHT see some cooler weather for the middle of next week due to more Northerly winds.  However, along with the cooler weather may come some showers.  Then for the end of next week, the hotter weather returns with more rain.

WeatherCoats | NJ Weather - Dangerous Heat Will Give Way

Dangerous heat will be affecting us for Thursday and Friday with the Heat Index (them temperature it feels like) well into the 100s.  The NWS has issued an Excessive Heat WARNING from Noon on Thursday to 8pm Saturday for all of New Jersey.  The combination of Heat and Humidity for those three days will cause life-threatening conditions that may lead to Heat Illness.  PLEASE DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS if you must go outside.  Otherwise, stay indoors in the AC or take a dip in the pool.  Also, do NOT run a fan in the house without either opening the window or placing a bowl of ice in front of the fan.  Failure to do so will create a convection-oven-like effect and cause temperatures inside to rise even higher than outside.  As for the rest of the week, temperatures and humidity will go down as the week progresses.  For Tuesday, the GFS Forecast Model is suggesting the possibility of some rain, but the NWS forecast isn't calling for any, so we'll just have to look out for that.

Looking Ahead:  Temperatures remain fairly hot for next week, with a chance of some rain next weekend and during the following week.  There still stands a chance, however, that we could see a couple of nicer and cooler days later on.

WeatherCoats | NJ Weather - Some Nice Weather Finally!

Now that the Cold Front has moved through, we can enjoy a couple of days with nice temperatures, sunny skies, and low humidity.  Unfortunately on Monday, another system with the help of a Bermuda High will be bringing up some hot & humid air from the Gulf.  As the system moves through Tuesday, there is a chance of thunderstorms.  Wednesday will remain hot & humid as the winds will remain from the south.  I personally wouldn't be surprised to see an isolated thunderstorm or two that day due to the heat and humidity.

Looking Ahead:  It seems like it will remain pretty hot for the remainder of the week with the chance of showers and probably a thunderstorm.  For the beginning of the week after, it looks like things might cool down a little, but with a chance of rain too.

WeatherCoats | NJ Weather - Nicer Weather Ahead!

Some hot, humid, and stormy weather will affect us Monday into Tuesday as a Low Pressure System pulls muggy air from the Gulf into the area.  The wet weather is expected to begin sometime Monday night, but really pick up after lunchtime Tuesday with a chance of thunderstorms, some of which may be severe.  Fortunately once the Cold Front passes, High Pressure will dominate the area for the rest of the week, giving us that nice weather I was talking about.  However, as I said, another system is planned to move in during the beginning of next week, bringing up hotter and more humid air on Sunday.

Looking Ahead:  That system bringing in the hot and humid air on Sunday will be a rainmaker for the beginning of next week.  However, another system will move in mid-week and give us another round of wet weather.  Temperatures will stay hot and humid for the end of next week due to a Bermuda High.  Then yet another system will bring some rain for Monday.

WeatherCoats | NJ Weather: Wet weather to end the week

It looks like I was initially correct  in saying that we may see a thunderstorm Wednesday, but I did back down on that forecast due to the forecast issued by the NWS.  However, I was right in questioning the NWS forecast for Friday, which originally called for sunny skies.  Looks like the GFS model won the battle against the NAM in forecasting a stormy day for Friday.  And it was a little surprising that the High for Friday is only at 79, so I looked into it and found out that for North Jersey, winds will be from the NE during the day while South Jersey will have winds from the SE.  Because the winds for North Jersey will be more "Northerly" (no pun intended), temperatures will be cooler up there as opposed to South Jerseys more "Southerly" winds which will keep temperatures in the mid 80s down there.

As for the rest of the week, temperatures go back up and humidity levels will slowly creep up as we move into Monday, but once the front passes by on Tuesday, expect nicer conditions for Wednesday.

Looking Ahead:  The rest of next week looks to be in the clear of storms.  However another system will approach the region, making temperatures & humidity go up for Friday - Saturday and bring wet weather for Sunday into Monday.  Then another system mid-week will make its way through the area.

WeatherCoats | NJ Weather: A HOT First Part of the Week

Well it looks like I was wrong about the storms for Sunday thru Wednesday.  However the hot temperatures are sticking with us due to that Bermuda High I was talking about.  In addition to that, a Low Pressure System will bring up hotter and more humid air on Wednesday before it passes through on Thursday where we may see some thunderstorms.  As for Friday, the computer models seem to be at a disagreement (surprise again) with the NAM keeping it dry and the GFS keeping it wet.  As usual, we'll have to sit back and let them fight it out, but just be on the lookout for the possibility of rain on Friday.  As for Saturday - Monday, looks like some sunny weather will greet us with some nice temperatures to go along with it.

Looking Ahead:  Another system will move through the area in the beginning of next week, bringing up warmer air and some wet weather.  Then some nicer weather will settle in for a few days before another system does a repeat with the warm and wet weather at the end of the week.

WeatherCoats | NJ Weather: Independence Day Forecast

WeatherCoats | NJ Weather - Some heat & humidity for the holiday weekend!

As I said in my last forecast, temperatures on on their way up, possibly high enough for long enough to give us another Heat Wave!  Thursday and Friday will remain cool as winds will remain from the north.  But a strong Low Pressure System in Canada is pulling up some hot and humid air beginning on Saturday.  The heat and humidity will also bring us a slight chance of showers and maybe a thunderstorm that may carry over into early Sunday.  Unfortunately the heat and humidity will remain for the rest of the July 4th weekend and into the start of next week.  I wouldn't be surprised if there was a shower or thunderstorm during the day from Sunday - Wednesday due to the humidity.  The GFS Forecast Model even has a small system moving through on Tuesday and Wednesday, so definitely be a look out for that as the week progresses.

Looking Ahead:  Looks like some wet weather will be sticking with us, probably in the form of isolated thunderstorms.  On top of that, hot temperatures stick with us as it seems like a stronger Bermuda High takes hold in the Atlantic, drawing up hot & humid air from the Gulf, which could explain the chance of rain in the absence of a Low Pressure System...

WeatherCoats | NJ Weather: Another system moving in

Seems as if I was right about the rain moving in for the beginning of the week.  A Low Pressure System will make its way through the area sometime Tuesday afternoon, giving us some showers and storms, and be out by Wednesday morning.  In addition to that there's a slight change of thunderstorms on Monday that is unassociated with the system, something that I unfortunately didn't see.  After the storms during the beginning of the week, some nicer weather will take hold for a few days before temperatures go up again for Saturday.

Looking ahead:  Temperatures continue to go up for the beginning of next week.  Then a double whammy from two Low Pressure Systems will bring wet weather and hotter temperatures to the region.

As for the tropical system that seemed to be forming for next week, looks like we'll have to wait on that.  The GFS Forecast Model is pushing the development further into the future and keeping it near Mexico away from Texas.  According to AccuWeather there exists the chance of tropical development next week just as I had discovered, however no word on an actual development just yet.  The National Hurricane Center has its eyes on a tropical wave in the Atlantic making its way towards the Caribbean.  Again, we'll just have to wait and see...

WeatherCoats | NJ Weather: More storms ahead

After a round of severe weather today with multiple Tornado Warnings throughout the state and possibly a funnel cloud touchdown in Central Jersey, expect another round of severe weather for the next few days.  Things will begin to clear out for the weekend as the cold front clears the region.  Sunday and Monday will see sunshine, but there may be a system that could affect us late Tuesday into Wednesday.  The GFS Model shows a trailing cold front from a Low Pressure System in Canada that could trigger some showers.  Humidity levels will also rise a little for Tuesday and Wednesday, so do I dare say that there is a chance of a thunderstorm too?  We'll have to wait and see about that.

Looking Ahead:  Temperatures look to be rising at the beginning of next week with a chance of some rain too.  Then a cold front will move through and cool things down for the rest of the week.

Also a very interesting thing is appearing on the GFS Model.  If it's correct, it seems like there may be a tropical system forming in the Gulf near Texas by next week.  Granted, I know next to nothing about how tropical systems look on forecast models or how they're represented, but this system looks very interesting.  Take a look for yourself:

GFS Forecast Model - Thu 6/30/11 1800UTC (6pm)

The white arrows represent the wind direction and although all Low Pressure Systems in the North Hemisphere have a counterclockwise flow, this one looks a little different.  The size of the system is a bit smaller than the normal Mid-Latitude Cyclones (Low Pressure Systems), the isobars are close together, and the 12-hour precipitation graphic shows a lot of rainfall surrounding the Low.  In addition, if you go ahead another 24 hours, it seems like it makes "landfall" in Texas.  To me, these features add up to a tropical system.  However, the GFS this far out into the future is only somewhat accurate and has proven entirely misleading before.  In addition, tropical systems are very hard to predict.  We will just have to wait and see about this one...

WeatherCoats | NJ Weather: A chance for storms for the beginning of the week

I hate to say it, but I was right when I said there was a chance of rain for Monday and Tuesday during my last forecast.  However, I also hate to say that I didn't call the thunderstorms for Sunday and Thursday, but I guess that evens out the playing field.  So for this week, a chance for some storms Sunday through Tuesday with highs in the low 80s.  The a warm up begins for Wednesday and into Thursday with a chance for an afternoon thunderstorm.  Warm temperatures stay for Friday, but a cold front will move in Saturday and cool things down a little.  The GFS Forecast Model is indicating that there may be some rain for Saturday as that cold front moves through.  Although the official NWS 7-day forecast didn't put a chance of rain in there, I felt the need to put up a little rain cloud for Saturday.  Lets keep our fingers crossed on that one!

Looking Ahead:  Temperatures may rise into the middle of next week with a chance of rain before some cooler air takes control for a few days.  Then, temperatures may rise again for the end of the week.

WeatherCoats | NJ Weather: Big Change from Heat & Humidity!

Definitely go outside and enjoy the beautiful weather because the heat & humidity is GONE!  A drastic change from the last couple of days with cool temperatures and a nice Spring feeling!  Throughout the week, the nice weather stays with temperatures remaining near the 80s.  Lows for tonight and tomorrow night will be down in the upper 40s, so enjoy it while it lasts!  Some showers may move through the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, but not much is expected from that system.  Although the forecast calls for sunny & clear conditions for Monday through Wednesday, I wouldn't rule out a possible shower or two as the GFS forecast model does indicate that possibility.  Definitely keep an eye out for Wednesday as a Low Pressure system could develop and give us some rain that day, but in all honesty it is still a bit too early to get into specifics.

Looking ahead:  The rain returns...