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Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Tropics Update - Will We Be Hit by a Hurricane?

Looking at the Atlantic GFS Forecast Model, it could be a possibility. The model is forecasting that a tropical wave coming off the shore of Africa will develop into a tropical system near the Antilles by sometime this weekend.  By next Saturday, this is what the computer model is suggesting: a tropical system, maybe hurricane strength, off the coast of Florida.  As you can see, the Low pictured above has tight isobars (the lines of pressure) and counterclockwise winds, all signs of a tropical system.

The current track (red dots) for it takes it into the coast of Georgia and South Carolina, over land where it will dissipate, and into Pennsylvania.  Now of course, a computer model forecast 2 weeks away is quite inaccurate with the track of systems, but the GFS does do a fair job at detecting that a system will develop somewhere in a general area and is considered a decent hurricane forecast model.  So should we expect a hurricane?  I'm going to take a wild guess (which I can do because I'm only a meteorology student) and say that there stands a decent chance for a hurricane, but the track is more than likely to change or even possibly take a whole other direction.  However, I wouldn't give up all hope!  I'll believe in the GFS if you do!!!

UPDATE - A day later the forecast track of the tropical system from the GFS has already changed.  It now takes it more eastward, just off the coast of New Jersey by Sunday the 28th:
Now as I said before, the track this far out is very uncertain.  However, I'm doing this just to let people know that there just to be aware of the possible threat and to just see how good the GFS really is haha.  And of course, the track of this storm is bound to change (could change to have a direct hit or a total miss). 

Keep track of the model updates here.

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