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Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Late Night Thoughts on Wednesday Night Storm

I've been tracking the Wednesday night storm for about a week now, but unfortunately, am still a bit unsure as to what I think about it.  The models have been everywhere lately and, quite frankly, I'm not sure what to make of it.  In addition, I'm encountering an interesting feature with this storm that I haven't encountered before.  Some warm air will be wrapping around the center of the Low as the storm matures.  This feature was pointed out to me by one of the meteorology seniors, Dan, who knows quite a bit more about reading models than I do.  This warm air advection would possibly make or break snowfall amounts, especially for areas along the shore.  Additionally, some other factors that take into place are that the surface temperatures the past couple of days have been very mild, the higher sun angle as we approach spring, and the fact that the snow that will be falling will be wet snow.  Regardless, I feel that I ought to issue my snowfall totals map just for practice, thus here it is:
So why am I being such a downer?  Firstly, this storm is just not very strong to begin with, and two of the models, the Euro and GFS, agree with that fact.  Although the NAM is good with close-ranged forecasts, it does tend to over-estimate precipitation values.  Then there's that warm air advection as the storm matures.  How strong will it be?  How much of an impact will it make?  From what I saw of the models, it looked to me as if a good amount of warm air will make its way into the surface.  Although aloft, temperatures will be cold enough, with the warm surface, weak system, high sun angle, and wet snowflakes, I'm seeing snowfall occuring, but the snow having a very hard time sticking.  This map may change as tomorrow's runs come out, but I figure I give my brains a shot at it.  But there you go, there's my two cents...

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