The Aftermath of Irene

Even as a Category 1, Hurricane Irene still did some significant damage.  Above is a picture of two trees that fell down outside Irene's sustained hurricane force wind radius, in sustained winds of only tropical storm force winds, with gusts maybe reaching hurricane force.  This just puts into perspective how strong tropical systems are, even if they are only tropical storms or a category 1.  Luckily, the trees didn't land on any power lines or people.  The other problem Irene caused was major flooding.  The Raritan River crested at near-record levels, around 40 feet.  Below is a picture of Route 18 near New Brunswick that was completely under water.  Multiple locations in NJ also received excessive amounts of water, causing serious flooding to towns and neighborhoods that resulted in additional evacuations.

Good news is that the Raritan has receded and Route 18 has now reopened in both directions.  However, roughly 280,000 homes and businesses around NJ are still in the black with no power. 

For continued coverage on the 2011 Hurricane Season, visit the WeatherCoats Hurricane Center.

Tropics Update - Will We Be Hit by a Hurricane?

Looking at the Atlantic GFS Forecast Model, it could be a possibility. The model is forecasting that a tropical wave coming off the shore of Africa will develop into a tropical system near the Antilles by sometime this weekend.  By next Saturday, this is what the computer model is suggesting: a tropical system, maybe hurricane strength, off the coast of Florida.  As you can see, the Low pictured above has tight isobars (the lines of pressure) and counterclockwise winds, all signs of a tropical system.

The current track (red dots) for it takes it into the coast of Georgia and South Carolina, over land where it will dissipate, and into Pennsylvania.  Now of course, a computer model forecast 2 weeks away is quite inaccurate with the track of systems, but the GFS does do a fair job at detecting that a system will develop somewhere in a general area and is considered a decent hurricane forecast model.  So should we expect a hurricane?  I'm going to take a wild guess (which I can do because I'm only a meteorology student) and say that there stands a decent chance for a hurricane, but the track is more than likely to change or even possibly take a whole other direction.  However, I wouldn't give up all hope!  I'll believe in the GFS if you do!!!

UPDATE - A day later the forecast track of the tropical system from the GFS has already changed.  It now takes it more eastward, just off the coast of New Jersey by Sunday the 28th:

Now as I said before, the track this far out is very uncertain.  However, I'm doing this just to let people know that there just to be aware of the possible threat and to just see how good the GFS really is haha.  And of course, the track of this storm is bound to change (could change to have a direct hit or a total miss). 

Keep track of the model updates here.

WeatherCoats | Tropical Storm Bret Has Arrived!

Another Tropical System has developed in the Atlantic Basin:  Tropical Storm Bret.  Bret formed off the coast of Florida this Sunday, July 17th and is expected to stay a TS and travel out to sea.  Fortunately (but unfortunately at the same time for weather enthusiasts), Bret is not expected to affect the East Coast.  However, you can still track Bret in the WeatherCoats Hurricane Center with up-to-date tracks and satellite images.

WeatherCoats | The 2011 Hurricane Season Commences!

Hurricane Igor 2010

It's June 1st ladies and gentlemen!  Not only does the first day for June mark the Meteorological first day of Summer, but it also marks the official starts of the 2011 Hurricane Season.  Each year, the Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service issues an outlook for the hurricane season.  This year, the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting for an above average hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin, forecasting for a 70% chance for 12-18 named storms (hurricanes and tropical storms), 6-10 hurricanes total, and 3-6 of them becoming major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).  This above average season is due to 

1. A continual era of high hurricane activity (since 1995, atmospheric and oceanic conditions have just become better for hurricanes to form),
2. Warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic (2 degrees above average), and
3. A La Nina in the Pacific, which results in less wind shear to distort a hurricane.

Dr. Jane Lubchenco says that "The United States was fortunate last year.  Winds steered most of the season's tropical storms and all hurricanes away from our coastlines.  However we can't count on luck to get us through this season.  We need to be prepared, especially with this above-normal outlook."

To prepare yourself for the 2011 Hurricane Season, go to the NWS Hurricane Preparedness Website where you will find information about the dangers of hurricanes, how to prepare for a hurricane, and other life-saving tips provided by the National Weather Service.

In addition, you can check out the NEW Hurricane Center from WeatherCoats where you can see up-to-date Tropical Outlooks from the National Hurricane Center and live satellite images of the Atlantic Basin.  As tropical systems begin to develop, more products will be added to the WeatherCoats Hurricane Center as they become available. 

To view to the full 2011 Hurricane Season Outlook, click here.