Rare December Thunderstorms Hit Jersey

A rare December thunderstorm surprises New Jersey around 10:30pm on Wednesday, December 21st, 2011. This line of thunderstorms, called a squall line, quickly moved through the region, rapidly changing conditions from a warm calm night to an intense downpour, high winds, and lightning! This squall line, associated with a Cold Front started out in Pennsylvania, but fired up when it hit the warm air over New Jersey.  Before the squall line, the average temperature statewide was in the 60s; afterwards, temperatures dropped to the 40s!

The Aftermath of Irene

Even as a Category 1, Hurricane Irene still did some significant damage.  Above is a picture of two trees that fell down outside Irene's sustained hurricane force wind radius, in sustained winds of only tropical storm force winds, with gusts maybe reaching hurricane force.  This just puts into perspective how strong tropical systems are, even if they are only tropical storms or a category 1.  Luckily, the trees didn't land on any power lines or people.  The other problem Irene caused was major flooding.  The Raritan River crested at near-record levels, around 40 feet.  Below is a picture of Route 18 near New Brunswick that was completely under water.  Multiple locations in NJ also received excessive amounts of water, causing serious flooding to towns and neighborhoods that resulted in additional evacuations.

Good news is that the Raritan has receded and Route 18 has now reopened in both directions.  However, roughly 280,000 homes and businesses around NJ are still in the black with no power. 

For continued coverage on the 2011 Hurricane Season, visit the WeatherCoats Hurricane Center.

Tropics Update - Hurricane Irene Now A Category 2

Just as I said, Atlantic's first Hurricane of this season has formed and it's headed right for the East Coast.  Now a Category 2, Hurricane Irene has a track set to impact the Eastern Seaboard by Saturday and make it's way up to NJ by Sunday or Monday.  Whether or not Irene will make landfall before affecting us is up in the air.  However, the GFS Forecast Model is suggesting that Irene will hug the East Coast and possibly not make landfall at all, allowing Irene to retain it's strength while still causing major damage to the East Coast, including the Carolinas, Virginia, Maryland, Deleware, and New Jersey.  

 

The NHC forecasts that Irene will continue to strengthen into a Major Hurricane (Category 3 or higher, winds 110mph+) by tomorrow.  Hurricane Warnings have been issued for the Bahamas, the Dominican Republic, Turks Islands, and Caicos Islands.  Hurricane Watches have been issued for Northern Haiti and Northwestern Bahamas.  For Hurricane Irene's track and satellite images, check out the WeatherCoats Hurricane Center. 

NJ Weather - ONE Nice Day and then More Rain!

Well that was a wet past couple of days, with records for rainfall in a single day being shattered in some areas!  Good news is that we'll have at least one nice day before the wet weather returns for Thursday and Friday.  The NAM Forecast Model is suggesting 0.5 to .75 inches of rain will fall with this system, with higher amounts in areas impacted by thunderstorms.  The GFS Forecast Model however is racking up with a higher total of possibly 1.5 inches in parts of New Jersey (again, higher in areas with thunderstorms).  Because the NAM is a higher resolution model, I'd have to go with its prediction as of now, but I guess we'll have to wait and see on that. 

As for the weekend, it looks pretty good with sunny conditions with only a slight chance of rain Sunday night.  Now here is where it gets a little... iffy.  The NWS forecast calls for mostly sunny conditions for Monday and Tuesday, however the GFS Forecast Model, generally good at forecasting 7 days out, suggests a system developing and dumping some rain from Monday into Tuesday.  I would personally keep an eye out for that as most of the time the GFS is correct in showing that a storm is coming.

Looking Ahead:  High Pressure builds for the remainder of next week, but will we be impacted by... a hurricane?