WeatherCoats | NJ Weather - Some heat & humidity for the holiday weekend!

As I said in my last forecast, temperatures on on their way up, possibly high enough for long enough to give us another Heat Wave!  Thursday and Friday will remain cool as winds will remain from the north.  But a strong Low Pressure System in Canada is pulling up some hot and humid air beginning on Saturday.  The heat and humidity will also bring us a slight chance of showers and maybe a thunderstorm that may carry over into early Sunday.  Unfortunately the heat and humidity will remain for the rest of the July 4th weekend and into the start of next week.  I wouldn't be surprised if there was a shower or thunderstorm during the day from Sunday - Wednesday due to the humidity.  The GFS Forecast Model even has a small system moving through on Tuesday and Wednesday, so definitely be a look out for that as the week progresses.

Looking Ahead:  Looks like some wet weather will be sticking with us, probably in the form of isolated thunderstorms.  On top of that, hot temperatures stick with us as it seems like a stronger Bermuda High takes hold in the Atlantic, drawing up hot & humid air from the Gulf, which could explain the chance of rain in the absence of a Low Pressure System...

WeatherCoats | Tropical Storm Arlene

It's official!  We now have our first tropical system of 2011: Tropical Storm Arlene.  I guess I was wrong in thinking the tropical system was forming later on in the week, but the GFS Forecast Model that I made that prediction from was wrong too!  Just trying to humor myself...

Anyway, as you can see, the forecasted cone for Arlene brings it into Mexico.  Just an aside, I chose to remove the favored track (the black line) because in my Weather Climate TV class at Rutgers, we discussed the problems of the favored track and concluded that it was misleading.  Just as clarification of what the forecasted cone (cone of uncertainty) actually is, its the area in which the tropical system will remain in for 2/3rds of the time.  This information is collected from the errors in past forecasts for tropical systems. Now back to Arlene.  Currently, sustained winds are at 40mph, barometric pressure is at 1003mb, and the system is moving WNW at 7mph.

To keep an eye on Arlene, go to the WeatherCoats Hurricane Center where you can see her most up-to-date projected track and more.

WeatherCoats | NJ Weather: Another system moving in

Seems as if I was right about the rain moving in for the beginning of the week.  A Low Pressure System will make its way through the area sometime Tuesday afternoon, giving us some showers and storms, and be out by Wednesday morning.  In addition to that there's a slight change of thunderstorms on Monday that is unassociated with the system, something that I unfortunately didn't see.  After the storms during the beginning of the week, some nicer weather will take hold for a few days before temperatures go up again for Saturday.

Looking ahead:  Temperatures continue to go up for the beginning of next week.  Then a double whammy from two Low Pressure Systems will bring wet weather and hotter temperatures to the region.

As for the tropical system that seemed to be forming for next week, looks like we'll have to wait on that.  The GFS Forecast Model is pushing the development further into the future and keeping it near Mexico away from Texas.  According to AccuWeather there exists the chance of tropical development next week just as I had discovered, however no word on an actual development just yet.  The National Hurricane Center has its eyes on a tropical wave in the Atlantic making its way towards the Caribbean.  Again, we'll just have to wait and see...

WeatherCoats | NJ Weather: Funnel Cloud over Jackson Twp, NJ

During yesterday's episode of severe weather, a Tornado Warning was issued for Monmouth and NW Ocean counties where a funnel cloud was spotted in Jackson Township, NJ.  The National Weather Service is in the process of confirming whether or not the funnel cloud touched down at any moment, making it an actual tornado.

WeatherCoats | NJ Weather: More storms ahead

After a round of severe weather today with multiple Tornado Warnings throughout the state and possibly a funnel cloud touchdown in Central Jersey, expect another round of severe weather for the next few days.  Things will begin to clear out for the weekend as the cold front clears the region.  Sunday and Monday will see sunshine, but there may be a system that could affect us late Tuesday into Wednesday.  The GFS Model shows a trailing cold front from a Low Pressure System in Canada that could trigger some showers.  Humidity levels will also rise a little for Tuesday and Wednesday, so do I dare say that there is a chance of a thunderstorm too?  We'll have to wait and see about that.

Looking Ahead:  Temperatures look to be rising at the beginning of next week with a chance of some rain too.  Then a cold front will move through and cool things down for the rest of the week.

Also a very interesting thing is appearing on the GFS Model.  If it's correct, it seems like there may be a tropical system forming in the Gulf near Texas by next week.  Granted, I know next to nothing about how tropical systems look on forecast models or how they're represented, but this system looks very interesting.  Take a look for yourself:

GFS Forecast Model - Thu 6/30/11 1800UTC (6pm)

The white arrows represent the wind direction and although all Low Pressure Systems in the North Hemisphere have a counterclockwise flow, this one looks a little different.  The size of the system is a bit smaller than the normal Mid-Latitude Cyclones (Low Pressure Systems), the isobars are close together, and the 12-hour precipitation graphic shows a lot of rainfall surrounding the Low.  In addition, if you go ahead another 24 hours, it seems like it makes "landfall" in Texas.  To me, these features add up to a tropical system.  However, the GFS this far out into the future is only somewhat accurate and has proven entirely misleading before.  In addition, tropical systems are very hard to predict.  We will just have to wait and see about this one...

WeatherCoats | Shanghai, China Weather Story

I was on vacation in Shanghai, China visiting family when one day some ominous looking clouds appeared on the horizon.  As they rolled through the city, the skies started to turn a bit green.  The picture above shows the eery green tint to the sky, which is a phenomenon that signals the presence of a tornado.  According to my mother, Shanghai never gets tornadoes there.  However, the next day we were riding the underground rail when we saw a news report of a tornado touching down the day before in a city not too far off from Shanghai, where tornadoes are not that uncommon.  The video footage showed people walking in the streets when suddenly the tornado hit, tossing stands and debris into the air as people ran for cover.  The tornado was reported to have been the strongest that city has seen (possibly an EF-1), but nothing like that of what we see in the US. 

WeatherCoats | NJ Weather: A chance for storms for the beginning of the week

I hate to say it, but I was right when I said there was a chance of rain for Monday and Tuesday during my last forecast.  However, I also hate to say that I didn't call the thunderstorms for Sunday and Thursday, but I guess that evens out the playing field.  So for this week, a chance for some storms Sunday through Tuesday with highs in the low 80s.  The a warm up begins for Wednesday and into Thursday with a chance for an afternoon thunderstorm.  Warm temperatures stay for Friday, but a cold front will move in Saturday and cool things down a little.  The GFS Forecast Model is indicating that there may be some rain for Saturday as that cold front moves through.  Although the official NWS 7-day forecast didn't put a chance of rain in there, I felt the need to put up a little rain cloud for Saturday.  Lets keep our fingers crossed on that one!

Looking Ahead:  Temperatures may rise into the middle of next week with a chance of rain before some cooler air takes control for a few days.  Then, temperatures may rise again for the end of the week.

WeatherCoats | NJ Weather: Big Change from Heat & Humidity!

Definitely go outside and enjoy the beautiful weather because the heat & humidity is GONE!  A drastic change from the last couple of days with cool temperatures and a nice Spring feeling!  Throughout the week, the nice weather stays with temperatures remaining near the 80s.  Lows for tonight and tomorrow night will be down in the upper 40s, so enjoy it while it lasts!  Some showers may move through the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, but not much is expected from that system.  Although the forecast calls for sunny & clear conditions for Monday through Wednesday, I wouldn't rule out a possible shower or two as the GFS forecast model does indicate that possibility.  Definitely keep an eye out for Wednesday as a Low Pressure system could develop and give us some rain that day, but in all honesty it is still a bit too early to get into specifics.

Looking ahead:  The rain returns...

WeatherCoats | The 2011 Hurricane Season Commences!

Hurricane Igor 2010

It's June 1st ladies and gentlemen!  Not only does the first day for June mark the Meteorological first day of Summer, but it also marks the official starts of the 2011 Hurricane Season.  Each year, the Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service issues an outlook for the hurricane season.  This year, the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting for an above average hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin, forecasting for a 70% chance for 12-18 named storms (hurricanes and tropical storms), 6-10 hurricanes total, and 3-6 of them becoming major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).  This above average season is due to 

1. A continual era of high hurricane activity (since 1995, atmospheric and oceanic conditions have just become better for hurricanes to form),
2. Warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic (2 degrees above average), and
3. A La Nina in the Pacific, which results in less wind shear to distort a hurricane.

Dr. Jane Lubchenco says that "The United States was fortunate last year.  Winds steered most of the season's tropical storms and all hurricanes away from our coastlines.  However we can't count on luck to get us through this season.  We need to be prepared, especially with this above-normal outlook."

To prepare yourself for the 2011 Hurricane Season, go to the NWS Hurricane Preparedness Website where you will find information about the dangers of hurricanes, how to prepare for a hurricane, and other life-saving tips provided by the National Weather Service.

In addition, you can check out the NEW Hurricane Center from WeatherCoats where you can see up-to-date Tropical Outlooks from the National Hurricane Center and live satellite images of the Atlantic Basin.  As tropical systems begin to develop, more products will be added to the WeatherCoats Hurricane Center as they become available. 

To view to the full 2011 Hurricane Season Outlook, click here.