WeatherCoats | Tropical Storm Arlene

It's official!  We now have our first tropical system of 2011: Tropical Storm Arlene.  I guess I was wrong in thinking the tropical system was forming later on in the week, but the GFS Forecast Model that I made that prediction from was wrong too!  Just trying to humor myself...

Anyway, as you can see, the forecasted cone for Arlene brings it into Mexico.  Just an aside, I chose to remove the favored track (the black line) because in my Weather Climate TV class at Rutgers, we discussed the problems of the favored track and concluded that it was misleading.  Just as clarification of what the forecasted cone (cone of uncertainty) actually is, its the area in which the tropical system will remain in for 2/3rds of the time.  This information is collected from the errors in past forecasts for tropical systems. Now back to Arlene.  Currently, sustained winds are at 40mph, barometric pressure is at 1003mb, and the system is moving WNW at 7mph.

To keep an eye on Arlene, go to the WeatherCoats Hurricane Center where you can see her most up-to-date projected track and more.