The Aftermath of Irene

Even as a Category 1, Hurricane Irene still did some significant damage.  Above is a picture of two trees that fell down outside Irene's sustained hurricane force wind radius, in sustained winds of only tropical storm force winds, with gusts maybe reaching hurricane force.  This just puts into perspective how strong tropical systems are, even if they are only tropical storms or a category 1.  Luckily, the trees didn't land on any power lines or people.  The other problem Irene caused was major flooding.  The Raritan River crested at near-record levels, around 40 feet.  Below is a picture of Route 18 near New Brunswick that was completely under water.  Multiple locations in NJ also received excessive amounts of water, causing serious flooding to towns and neighborhoods that resulted in additional evacuations.

Good news is that the Raritan has receded and Route 18 has now reopened in both directions.  However, roughly 280,000 homes and businesses around NJ are still in the black with no power. 

For continued coverage on the 2011 Hurricane Season, visit the WeatherCoats Hurricane Center.

Tropics Update - Hurricane Irene Now A Category 2

Just as I said, Atlantic's first Hurricane of this season has formed and it's headed right for the East Coast.  Now a Category 2, Hurricane Irene has a track set to impact the Eastern Seaboard by Saturday and make it's way up to NJ by Sunday or Monday.  Whether or not Irene will make landfall before affecting us is up in the air.  However, the GFS Forecast Model is suggesting that Irene will hug the East Coast and possibly not make landfall at all, allowing Irene to retain it's strength while still causing major damage to the East Coast, including the Carolinas, Virginia, Maryland, Deleware, and New Jersey.  

 

The NHC forecasts that Irene will continue to strengthen into a Major Hurricane (Category 3 or higher, winds 110mph+) by tomorrow.  Hurricane Warnings have been issued for the Bahamas, the Dominican Republic, Turks Islands, and Caicos Islands.  Hurricane Watches have been issued for Northern Haiti and Northwestern Bahamas.  For Hurricane Irene's track and satellite images, check out the WeatherCoats Hurricane Center. 

Tropics Update - Will We Be Hit by a Hurricane?

Looking at the Atlantic GFS Forecast Model, it could be a possibility. The model is forecasting that a tropical wave coming off the shore of Africa will develop into a tropical system near the Antilles by sometime this weekend.  By next Saturday, this is what the computer model is suggesting: a tropical system, maybe hurricane strength, off the coast of Florida.  As you can see, the Low pictured above has tight isobars (the lines of pressure) and counterclockwise winds, all signs of a tropical system.

The current track (red dots) for it takes it into the coast of Georgia and South Carolina, over land where it will dissipate, and into Pennsylvania.  Now of course, a computer model forecast 2 weeks away is quite inaccurate with the track of systems, but the GFS does do a fair job at detecting that a system will develop somewhere in a general area and is considered a decent hurricane forecast model.  So should we expect a hurricane?  I'm going to take a wild guess (which I can do because I'm only a meteorology student) and say that there stands a decent chance for a hurricane, but the track is more than likely to change or even possibly take a whole other direction.  However, I wouldn't give up all hope!  I'll believe in the GFS if you do!!!

UPDATE - A day later the forecast track of the tropical system from the GFS has already changed.  It now takes it more eastward, just off the coast of New Jersey by Sunday the 28th:

Now as I said before, the track this far out is very uncertain.  However, I'm doing this just to let people know that there just to be aware of the possible threat and to just see how good the GFS really is haha.  And of course, the track of this storm is bound to change (could change to have a direct hit or a total miss). 

Keep track of the model updates here.