Rare December Thunderstorms Hit Jersey

A rare December thunderstorm surprises New Jersey around 10:30pm on Wednesday, December 21st, 2011. This line of thunderstorms, called a squall line, quickly moved through the region, rapidly changing conditions from a warm calm night to an intense downpour, high winds, and lightning! This squall line, associated with a Cold Front started out in Pennsylvania, but fired up when it hit the warm air over New Jersey.  Before the squall line, the average temperature statewide was in the 60s; afterwards, temperatures dropped to the 40s!

Fort Dix Radar to receive Dual-Polarization Upgrade!

Recently announced, the National Weather Service WSR-88D (weather service radar 1988 Doppler) Radar at Fort Dix in New Jersey will be receiving a Dual-Polarization Upgrade scheduled for January 30th - February 12th!  The Dual-Polarization (Dual-Pole) Upgrade will equip the Fort Dix Radar with the ability to detect hail in thunderstorms, differentiate between rain, snow, and melting snow, better detect patches of heavy rain, and detect debris lofted by significant tornadoes.  Currently we rely on a series of calculations, measurements, and observations to detect snowfall and simply color in radar images to identify those areas experiencing snowfall.  For more information about Dual-Pole, go to http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/COURSES/DUALPOL/OUTREACH/

Current Doppler Radar vs Dual Polarization Upgrade

RU WeatherWatcher - Nice weather for today, but rain moves in and even a chance of snow by Thursday!

RU WeatherWatcher - Rain Rolls On In...

RU WeatherWatcher - After a crazy October Snowstorm, some warmer temperatures on the way!

RU WeatherWatcher - Clear and Cool Today

RU WeatherWatcher - Sunny & warm for the next few days!

A Miracle the Size of Texas

After one of the most intense droughts in recent memory, Texas is finally getting a little relief with some much needed rain.  Above is the radar image as of 10:39pm Central Daylight Time; below is a map showing the drought intensity throughout the state.

This rain truly is a miracle the size of Texas and in literal terms, almost is!  Good luck down there! =) 

RU WeatherWatcher - Warmer Weather On Its Way!

 

It was a cool past couple of days and that's no different for today or tomorrow.  Warmer weather will move into the region by mid-week, but some rain might come with it too.

RU WeatherWatcher - Somber Skies for a Day of Rememberance

 

Somber skies set the mood for the nation's commemoration of the 9/11 attacks on America 10 years ago.  Expect some showers and storms later today, most likely after lunchtime, and into tomorrow.  By tomorrow night, we will get a break from all the wet weather that will continue for most of the week with the exception of Wednesday, which has a chance of showers. 

Rutgers WeatherWatcher - Sunny today, then rain moves in for the rest of the week

Today will be a sunny one, but tonight brings the threat of storms that will continue through the week.  A Low pressure system with a trailing cold front will not only make it rain the the next few days, but also pick up the remnants of TS Lee, which will dump some rain on us for Wednesday and Thursday.  And then there's Katia, the hurricane that churns up bad memories of Irene.  Good news is that the remnants of Lee along with the cold front will push Katia out of the way just in time.  

Tropical Update - Will Katia Impact Us?

After Irene hit the Mid Atlantic, the question on everyone's mind is "will another hurricane hit us?"  And with Hurricane Katia churning in the Atlantic, people are wondering if she's up next.  Katia's forecasted track issued by the National Hurricane Center looks like she will impact New Jersey like Irene did, but I'm here to tell you that the chances of that happening are less than likely.  Below are the 12z model runs from the GFS (left) and GFDL (right) for Katia:

GFS Forecast Model | GFDL Forecast Model

These two models, the GFS and GFDL are considered the best hurricane models there are to offer.  Now, this doesn't mean that they're perfect, but indeed, they do a good job.  As you can see, both models have Katia well off shore NJ around Thursday - Friday (there's a little disagreement on timing) and not making a significant impact on us.  The GFS has Katia a little closer to NJ and arriving later than the GFDL's predictions, but it still suggests that Katia will not affect us greatly.  Both models agree that Katia will make a charge towards the Mid-Atlantic, but then make a sharp turn Northeast away from the US.  The reason for this is the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee is predicted to help push Katia away from us.  According to these models, the maximum affect Katia will have on NJ will be cloud cover, rip currents, and some outer rain bands. 

So should you cancel your plans for next week?  Unless you're planning to go down to the shore, I'd suggest no, at least not yet (because the computer models could always be wrong... after all, weather is chaotic).  As always, for the most up to date info on the tropics, go to the WeatherCoats Hurricane Center. 

The Aftermath of Irene

Even as a Category 1, Hurricane Irene still did some significant damage.  Above is a picture of two trees that fell down outside Irene's sustained hurricane force wind radius, in sustained winds of only tropical storm force winds, with gusts maybe reaching hurricane force.  This just puts into perspective how strong tropical systems are, even if they are only tropical storms or a category 1.  Luckily, the trees didn't land on any power lines or people.  The other problem Irene caused was major flooding.  The Raritan River crested at near-record levels, around 40 feet.  Below is a picture of Route 18 near New Brunswick that was completely under water.  Multiple locations in NJ also received excessive amounts of water, causing serious flooding to towns and neighborhoods that resulted in additional evacuations.

Good news is that the Raritan has receded and Route 18 has now reopened in both directions.  However, roughly 280,000 homes and businesses around NJ are still in the black with no power. 

For continued coverage on the 2011 Hurricane Season, visit the WeatherCoats Hurricane Center.

Tropics Update - Hurricane Irene Now A Category 2

Just as I said, Atlantic's first Hurricane of this season has formed and it's headed right for the East Coast.  Now a Category 2, Hurricane Irene has a track set to impact the Eastern Seaboard by Saturday and make it's way up to NJ by Sunday or Monday.  Whether or not Irene will make landfall before affecting us is up in the air.  However, the GFS Forecast Model is suggesting that Irene will hug the East Coast and possibly not make landfall at all, allowing Irene to retain it's strength while still causing major damage to the East Coast, including the Carolinas, Virginia, Maryland, Deleware, and New Jersey.  

 

The NHC forecasts that Irene will continue to strengthen into a Major Hurricane (Category 3 or higher, winds 110mph+) by tomorrow.  Hurricane Warnings have been issued for the Bahamas, the Dominican Republic, Turks Islands, and Caicos Islands.  Hurricane Watches have been issued for Northern Haiti and Northwestern Bahamas.  For Hurricane Irene's track and satellite images, check out the WeatherCoats Hurricane Center.