Tropical Update - Will Katia Impact Us?

After Irene hit the Mid Atlantic, the question on everyone's mind is "will another hurricane hit us?"  And with Hurricane Katia churning in the Atlantic, people are wondering if she's up next.  Katia's forecasted track issued by the National Hurricane Center looks like she will impact New Jersey like Irene did, but I'm here to tell you that the chances of that happening are less than likely.  Below are the 12z model runs from the GFS (left) and GFDL (right) for Katia:

GFS Forecast Model | GFDL Forecast Model

These two models, the GFS and GFDL are considered the best hurricane models there are to offer.  Now, this doesn't mean that they're perfect, but indeed, they do a good job.  As you can see, both models have Katia well off shore NJ around Thursday - Friday (there's a little disagreement on timing) and not making a significant impact on us.  The GFS has Katia a little closer to NJ and arriving later than the GFDL's predictions, but it still suggests that Katia will not affect us greatly.  Both models agree that Katia will make a charge towards the Mid-Atlantic, but then make a sharp turn Northeast away from the US.  The reason for this is the remnants of Tropical Storm Lee is predicted to help push Katia away from us.  According to these models, the maximum affect Katia will have on NJ will be cloud cover, rip currents, and some outer rain bands. 

So should you cancel your plans for next week?  Unless you're planning to go down to the shore, I'd suggest no, at least not yet (because the computer models could always be wrong... after all, weather is chaotic).  As always, for the most up to date info on the tropics, go to the WeatherCoats Hurricane Center.