WeatherCoats | Tropical Update - TS Don Has Formed

Tropical Storm Don formed in the Gulf of Mexico earlier Thursday off the coast of Mexico with maximum sustained winds of 40mph as of 10pm.  The National Hurricane Center does not expect Don to form into a Hurricane just yet.  Track Don and it's intensity at the WeatherCoats Hurricane Center!

WeatherCoats | NJ Weather - The Hot Weather Returns...

Unfortunately the last forecast was a bit off by not forecasting thunderstorms for Sunday and Monday.  However, my personal observation turned out somewhat correct in saying there could be some rain Tuesday, as there is a chance of a thunderstorm Tuesday Night.  And like I said, some hot weather will be affecting us with a chance of thunderstorms Thursday Night into Friday.  The hot weather will stay with us through the beginning of next week and there may even be some rain then too.  The GFS Forecast Model is suggesting some rain Sunday night into Monday as a system may move through the area.

Looking Ahead:  We MIGHT see some cooler weather for the middle of next week due to more Northerly winds.  However, along with the cooler weather may come some showers.  Then for the end of next week, the hotter weather returns with more rain.

WeatherCoats | NJ Weather - Dangerous Heat Will Give Way

Dangerous heat will be affecting us for Thursday and Friday with the Heat Index (them temperature it feels like) well into the 100s.  The NWS has issued an Excessive Heat WARNING from Noon on Thursday to 8pm Saturday for all of New Jersey.  The combination of Heat and Humidity for those three days will cause life-threatening conditions that may lead to Heat Illness.  PLEASE DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS if you must go outside.  Otherwise, stay indoors in the AC or take a dip in the pool.  Also, do NOT run a fan in the house without either opening the window or placing a bowl of ice in front of the fan.  Failure to do so will create a convection-oven-like effect and cause temperatures inside to rise even higher than outside.  As for the rest of the week, temperatures and humidity will go down as the week progresses.  For Tuesday, the GFS Forecast Model is suggesting the possibility of some rain, but the NWS forecast isn't calling for any, so we'll just have to look out for that.

Looking Ahead:  Temperatures remain fairly hot for next week, with a chance of some rain next weekend and during the following week.  There still stands a chance, however, that we could see a couple of nicer and cooler days later on.

WeatherCoats | Tropical Storm Bret Has Arrived!

Another Tropical System has developed in the Atlantic Basin:  Tropical Storm Bret.  Bret formed off the coast of Florida this Sunday, July 17th and is expected to stay a TS and travel out to sea.  Fortunately (but unfortunately at the same time for weather enthusiasts), Bret is not expected to affect the East Coast.  However, you can still track Bret in the WeatherCoats Hurricane Center with up-to-date tracks and satellite images.

WeatherCoats | NJ Weather - Some Nice Weather Finally!

Now that the Cold Front has moved through, we can enjoy a couple of days with nice temperatures, sunny skies, and low humidity.  Unfortunately on Monday, another system with the help of a Bermuda High will be bringing up some hot & humid air from the Gulf.  As the system moves through Tuesday, there is a chance of thunderstorms.  Wednesday will remain hot & humid as the winds will remain from the south.  I personally wouldn't be surprised to see an isolated thunderstorm or two that day due to the heat and humidity.

Looking Ahead:  It seems like it will remain pretty hot for the remainder of the week with the chance of showers and probably a thunderstorm.  For the beginning of the week after, it looks like things might cool down a little, but with a chance of rain too.

WeatherCoats | NJ Weather - Nicer Weather Ahead!

Some hot, humid, and stormy weather will affect us Monday into Tuesday as a Low Pressure System pulls muggy air from the Gulf into the area.  The wet weather is expected to begin sometime Monday night, but really pick up after lunchtime Tuesday with a chance of thunderstorms, some of which may be severe.  Fortunately once the Cold Front passes, High Pressure will dominate the area for the rest of the week, giving us that nice weather I was talking about.  However, as I said, another system is planned to move in during the beginning of next week, bringing up hotter and more humid air on Sunday.

Looking Ahead:  That system bringing in the hot and humid air on Sunday will be a rainmaker for the beginning of next week.  However, another system will move in mid-week and give us another round of wet weather.  Temperatures will stay hot and humid for the end of next week due to a Bermuda High.  Then yet another system will bring some rain for Monday.

WeatherCoats | NJ Weather: Strong storms expected for today

As a Low Pressure System slides along a stationary front over our area, some strong thunderstorms are expected to impact us throughout the afternoon and into the overnight hours.  According the the NAM Forecast Model, the bulk of the storm will dump its payload during the late afternoon to nighttime hours.  During the afternoon, pop-up thunderstorms are expected to affect the region.  In addition, the National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood WATCH for Middlesex, Hunterdon, and Somerset counties AND all counties South of that until 4am Saturday.  Thunderstorms associated with this system could potentially have rainfall amounts in excess of 2 inches per hour.  If you approach a flooded street or intersection, please DO NOT take the risk and drive through it.  Remember, turn around, don't drown!

UPDATE:  The National Weather Service has issued a Severe Thunderstorm WATCH effective until 9pm tonight for the entire state of New Jersey.  Please remember, if you can hear thunder, you can be struck by lightning.  Seek shelter if a thunderstorm is imminent.

WeatherCoats | Tropical Storm Calvin (East Pacific)

We have a new tropical system in the East Pacific:  Tropical Storm Calvin.  The forecasted track brings it deeper into the Pacific Ocean, so it won't be a big problem.

Back in the Atlantic, we're keeping an eye on two disturbances, one off the coast of Florida and the other off the coast of Venezuela.  For more info, check out the WeatherCoats Hurricane Center.

WeatherCoats | Tracking Strong Storms in South Jersey

Some strong thunderstorms are moving into Atlantic and Cumberland counties currently (7/7/11 8:22pm).  Please be aware of these storms and seek shelter if you hear thunder!  Some of these cells are reported to have rotation in them.

UPDATE:  A Severe Thunderstorm WARNING now in effect.

WeatherCoats | NJ Weather: Wet weather to end the week

It looks like I was initially correct  in saying that we may see a thunderstorm Wednesday, but I did back down on that forecast due to the forecast issued by the NWS.  However, I was right in questioning the NWS forecast for Friday, which originally called for sunny skies.  Looks like the GFS model won the battle against the NAM in forecasting a stormy day for Friday.  And it was a little surprising that the High for Friday is only at 79, so I looked into it and found out that for North Jersey, winds will be from the NE during the day while South Jersey will have winds from the SE.  Because the winds for North Jersey will be more "Northerly" (no pun intended), temperatures will be cooler up there as opposed to South Jerseys more "Southerly" winds which will keep temperatures in the mid 80s down there.

As for the rest of the week, temperatures go back up and humidity levels will slowly creep up as we move into Monday, but once the front passes by on Tuesday, expect nicer conditions for Wednesday.

Looking Ahead:  The rest of next week looks to be in the clear of storms.  However another system will approach the region, making temperatures & humidity go up for Friday - Saturday and bring wet weather for Sunday into Monday.  Then another system mid-week will make its way through the area.

WeatherCoats | NJ Weather: A HOT First Part of the Week

Well it looks like I was wrong about the storms for Sunday thru Wednesday.  However the hot temperatures are sticking with us due to that Bermuda High I was talking about.  In addition to that, a Low Pressure System will bring up hotter and more humid air on Wednesday before it passes through on Thursday where we may see some thunderstorms.  As for Friday, the computer models seem to be at a disagreement (surprise again) with the NAM keeping it dry and the GFS keeping it wet.  As usual, we'll have to sit back and let them fight it out, but just be on the lookout for the possibility of rain on Friday.  As for Saturday - Monday, looks like some sunny weather will greet us with some nice temperatures to go along with it.

Looking Ahead:  Another system will move through the area in the beginning of next week, bringing up warmer air and some wet weather.  Then some nicer weather will settle in for a few days before another system does a repeat with the warm and wet weather at the end of the week.

WeatherCoats | NJ Weather: Independence Day Forecast

WeatherCoats | NJ Weather: Severe Thunderstorm WARNINGS for Central Jersey

The NWS has issued Severe Thunderstorm WARNINGS for parts of Central Jersey.  These storms are capable of producing quarter-sized hail and destructive winds in excess of 60mph.  If you are in the path of these storms, PLEASE SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY!  If you can hear thunder, you can be struck by lightning!

I'm personally keeping an eye on the cell near Jackson, NJ.  This cell is producing pink& purple colors on the composite radar, which hints towards a very intense thunderstorm that may actually spawn a tornado.  To keep an eye on the storm, head to the WeatherCoats Weather Center and track it with the Interactive Weather Map or go to the NWS Radar & Warnings Map.