A Stubborn Old Man Winter...

It feels like winter just refuses to depart from New Jersey and allow the warm welcome of spring to greet us.  Another winter storm is set to affect us overnight tonight and into tomorrow, giving parts of the state 2-4 inches with the bullseye in South Jersey receiving possibly 4-6.  Untreated surfaces will see accumulation, and will be hazardous.  Treated surfaces will be a bit slick, so exercise caution tomorrow regardless.  A Winter Storm WARNING is in effect for all of South Jersey excluding Cape May County and a Winter Weather Advisory is in place for the rest of the state. 

Here's a timeline for this storm:

Overnight - The storm arrives at the southern part of the state with some light mixed precipitation.

Monday Morning - The morning commute in South Jersey will be a slick one, with rain along the coast, mix further inland, and wet snow in the western half of Southern NJ. Untreated surfaces (any side roads or sidewalks without salt or brine) will be hazardous, so please be cautious when traveling.  Treated surfaces will be wet, but remain mostly snow-free.  There could always be a surprise slippery spot, however, so please be careful while traveling regardless!

Monday Lunchtime - Wet snow will be falling across the entire state, with the heaviest snow in falling in South Jersey.  Again, exercise caution while traveling, regardless if you are on a treated or untreated road or sidewalk. Please remember to turn on headlights when you are driving!

Monday Afternoon/Evening - Snow will become heavier in South Jersey and remain steady Trenton northward. 

Monday Midnight - The storm will begin to depart and the snow will taper off overnight.

Updated Snow Map

Here's an updated snowmap for this week's storm.  I upped the snowfall for North Jersey because on Thursday night, all 3 models are showing a "wrap around" chunk of snow falling for that area.  I still feel that South Jersey will mostly be too warm for the bulk of the system, but I removed the rain/mix area because I'm sure they'll see some snow (plus, I felt bad haha). 

MORE IMPORTANTLY, strong winds and costal flooding are the bigger danger from this storm.  Both a High Wind WARNING and a Coastal Flood WARNING are in effect for the entire Jersey coast.  Winds of 20-30mph sustained with gusts up to 60mph are expected along with 6-8ft tides.  Winds and flooding are already impacting the coast and causing a bit of damage.  Voluntary evacuations are in effect for some coastal towns.

  Courtesy NBC 40

Late Night Thoughts on Wednesday Night Storm

I've been tracking the Wednesday night storm for about a week now, but unfortunately, am still a bit unsure as to what I think about it.  The models have been everywhere lately and, quite frankly, I'm not sure what to make of it.  In addition, I'm encountering an interesting feature with this storm that I haven't encountered before.  Some warm air will be wrapping around the center of the Low as the storm matures.  This feature was pointed out to me by one of the meteorology seniors, Dan, who knows quite a bit more about reading models than I do.  This warm air advection would possibly make or break snowfall amounts, especially for areas along the shore.  Additionally, some other factors that take into place are that the surface temperatures the past couple of days have been very mild, the higher sun angle as we approach spring, and the fact that the snow that will be falling will be wet snow.  Regardless, I feel that I ought to issue my snowfall totals map just for practice, thus here it is:

So why am I being such a downer?  Firstly, this storm is just not very strong to begin with, and two of the models, the Euro and GFS, agree with that fact.  Although the NAM is good with close-ranged forecasts, it does tend to over-estimate precipitation values.  Then there's that warm air advection as the storm matures.  How strong will it be?  How much of an impact will it make?  From what I saw of the models, it looked to me as if a good amount of warm air will make its way into the surface.  Although aloft, temperatures will be cold enough, with the warm surface, weak system, high sun angle, and wet snowflakes, I'm seeing snowfall occuring, but the snow having a very hard time sticking.  This map may change as tomorrow's runs come out, but I figure I give my brains a shot at it.  But there you go, there's my two cents...