Live Conditions

Thursday, February 7, 2013

This may be the one!

I know that this past winter has been very disappointing with both the amount of snow and the forecasting of it, however, I feel that this may change very soon (as soon as tomorrow!).  A few days ago, the Euro was showing a very strong Nor'easter impact the state and the region, however, it showed mostly rain initially and the GFS did not agree.  The trend changed though and now the Euro, GFS, and also the NAM are all in agreement that this Nor'easter will dump snow on the region, which is a very good sign for snow lovers.  Additionally, the NWS has put North Jersey under a Winter Storm Watch. The 12Z Euro and NAM are nearly identical and show the possibility of 8-14"+ in North Jersey, 5-8" in Central Jersey, and Southbound, the snow amounts will decrease sharply, and Southern NJ may see only 2-5" with coastal areas seeing even less.  I will be publishing my official snow totals forecast later, but for now here's the timeline:  The storm will begin as rain early Friday morning, increasing in intensity by the early afternoon.  The rain will begin transitioning to snow starting from the northwest and moving southeast during the late afternoon and into the evening.  At this point, winds will be intensifying, with guats reaching 35+mph.  By Friday night, heavy snow will be falling in northeast New Jersey, moderate snow in northwest and Central Jersey, and some light snow in Southern part of the state.  The snow will be tapering off by Saturday morning and the bulk of the storm will leave by noon. 

Again, expect another update from me later today.

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