First Snow for South Jersey?

It's been almost two years since South Jersey has seen any accumulating snow, but it looks like we'll be ending our snowless reign tonight! Forecast models are showing a system to the south grazing the southern part of the state delivering up to 6 inches in some parts of the region (see snow forecast below), according to the NWS, who has issued a Winter Storm WATCH for the southern counties.  The folks in Mt. Holly are expressing uncertainty with the forecast, however, as a result of conflicting forecast models, and they should be.  The 00z Euro and GFS models are forecasting snow and are in fair agreement with one another with how much precip would fall and where the storm would be located. The Euro, though, is showing a slower cooling at the surface, which could possibly inhibit snow accumulations a bit. Regardless, the models are still in good agreement with each other. 

Here's where it gets complicated: the NAM, the model acclaimed for its short-term forecasting, is saying no snow, period.  So we're actually finding ourselves in a bit of an awkward spot with the two mid and long range models agreeing while the short range model is becoming the outlier in a short-term forecast.  Going solely on raw forecast data, we unfortunately can't draw any confident conclusions.  Using some logic, though, we can get some answers. 

Firstly, all 3 models agree that temperatures will be cold enough aloft for snow, so we know that it can snow.

Secondly, we've been having some fairly chilly nights, thus we know if any snow falls, it can stick.

Thirdly, a harder question, will it snow?  I personally think yes, it will.  Two out of the three main models are agreeing fairly well that it will snow, and agreement between models is very, very good. 

Lastly, the hardest of all, how much will it snow?  Looking at the models myself, I feel that there is going to be accumulations in South Jersey, but not as much as the NWS is forecasting.  Now granted, the NWS has a team of expert meteorologists who are professionals in the field; I have my wits and my gut, that is all.  But, this is my two cents for what its worth, nonetheless.  I feel that there will be an inch or two less than what is being forecasted by the NWS in all areas, but still accumulations in Southern NJ with more the further south and east you go, but no more than 4 inches throughout (there could always be locally heavy spots).

I'll keep updating as more information and updated model runs come in.  Stay safe!