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Tuesday, October 23, 2012

A "Perfect Storm" On Its Way?

Below is the Oct 23rd 00Z model output for the European Forecast Model:
For the past week, the Euro has been consistently showing a powerful hurricane striking the Northeast during the week of Halloween, around the 30th.  This, of course, brings back memories of Irene last year in August.  However, this storm, now deemed "Sandy", is very unique according to the Euro.  Most east coast hurricanes take one of two paths: one that veers it eastward into the Atlantic; another that grazes the shoreline, similar to Irene.  Sandy, however, looks like it may take an interesting path that is almost inconceivable - a sharp turn westward, straight into the Northeast:
To be honest, this is a very, very unusual, almost improbable path for a hurricane to take, however, the Euro is showing an extremely strong trough developing over the Continental US that essentially creates a pocket for Sandy to potentially get pulled westward.  On a normal basis, I would consider such a forecast to be a "goof" of the forecast model, however, the consistency of the Euro for the past week is worrisome and a cause for alarm.  In addition, meteorologists across the country are very aware of the building situation and are shocked and concerned.  If this track holds true, which I feel is likely, the Northeast could be the epicenter of an unprecedented weather catastrophe. 


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