Around this time last year, the Extended GFS Forecast Model showed Irene making a direct impact to the Eastern Seaboard two weeks ahead of it's landfall. Now today's 12Z GFS Model is having a deja vu moment and showing yet
another hurricane for the East Coast in about two weeks or from the remnants of Florence. Now as a disclaimer, it is way too far out to even surely say a hurricane will form at all, let alone take this exact route. The GFS Model is known to issue inaccurate forecasts, especially two weeks ahead of time. Instead, the GFS tends to give a
general forecast, as per my nickname for it, the "General Forecasting System" (real name is Global Forecasting System). However, in the defense of the GFS, it did forecast Irene quite well last year, providing an accurate and decently precise track two weeks ahead of time. In addition, it is one of the better hurricane forecast models out there along with the GFDL and European Models, but note that better does not necessarily mean great. Unfortunately I cannot give a sure say to where, when, or even if a hurricane will hit the Eastern US as much as I would like to, but I will say that we need to keep an eye out for the middle of the week around the 22nd.
